Rosa Dishur

An enormous eruption in 536CE changed the predominant patterns of agriculture and trade from the Mediterranean Basin to East Asia. What was coined the Dust Veil was a volcanic eruption originating in Iceland which spewed so many fine, reflective particles into the air that a dark cloud covered Europe and Asia from the British Isles to China.3Ann Gibbons, 'Eruption Made 536 "the Worst Year to Be Alive"', Science 362, no. 6416 (16 November 2018): 733–34. For 18 months it was perpetual dawn, devastating agricultural systems and resulting in major migration around the Mediterranean Basin.4Kyle Harper, The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire (Princeton University Press, 2018).

Within this weakened state, the introduction of Plague vectors to one of the main trading hubs of the Byzantine Empire led to a quick dispersion within the Empire. The port of Pelusium, Egypt, lay at the easternmost edge of the Nile Delta. From 541 CE onwards, the Plague visited the Empires of the Mediterranean and adjacent lands in approximately 18 waves until the disease disappeared again in the 750s.5Peter Sarris, 'The Justinianic Plague: Origins and Effects', Continuity and Change 17, no. 2 (2002): 169–82. Within those 190 years, Antiquity ended, the Byzantine Empire fell apart, and the Arabs introduced a new religion within the Middle East and Northern Africa. These two centuries were times of major movement, both humane and in goods, even more so culturally and politically.

The obvious factors when it comes to disease dispersion are human movement and trade. It is therefore unsurprising that the plague was carried along trade routes, both via land and sea.

When considering pandemics and epidemics, several factors influence not only the perception of the disease but on the dispersion. COVID is a nice example of the rumour that eating a bat will lead to a pandemic. While this is well within the area of hearsay, the distinct dependence of Yersinia pestis on animal vectors cannot be argued against. The animal vector in this case of disease is rodents, mainly rats (Rattus Rattus), that carry the disease vector within their fleas.6Michael McCormick, 'Rats, Communications, and Plague: Toward an Ecological History', Journal of Interdisciplinary History 34, no. 1 (2003): 1–25. Their close contact with humans and their textiles and wares dispersed the vector most efficiently throughout the Empires.

The third vector, after humans and animals, and this one is entirely out of human hands, is seismic events. Especially the Eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot for seismic activity, with several continental plate subduction and fracture zones crisscrossing the land and sea.7N. N. Ambraseys and J. A. Jackson, 'Faulting Associated with Historical and Recent Earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region', Geophysical Journal International 133, no. 2 (1 May 1998): 390–406. Especially the Levante and the Sea of Marmara are prone to major seismic events, such as earthquakes, landslides and consequential tsunamis.

I argue that both animal and seismic factors play a larger role than previously researched in disease outbreaks and dispersion. I argue that eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis factored into the renewed and repeated outbreaks of Plague in Late Antiquity. While a direct link seems farfetched, the idea that large seismic events influence human health and mortality isn't new.

I have begun testing this working hypothesis using the most recent historical catalogues. The results appear to support my working hypothesis: the dates 558, 581, 635, 619, and 713 all show Plague outbreaks following seismic events.8Dionysios Stathakopoulos, 'Crime and Punishment: The Plague in the Byzantine Empire, 541–749', Plague and the End of Antiquity: The Pandemic of 541 750 (2007): 99–118; Gottfried Grünthal and Rutger Wahlström, 'The European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC) for the Last Millennium', Journal of Seismology 16, no. 3 (1 July 2012): 535–70.

While we cannot judge the seismic activity on our modern Richter Scale, we can extrapolate from historic reports the magnitude of destruction. If a city needs to be rebuilt in its entirety, we can infer that it was a major event.

While I can already see within my preliminary results that a certain amount of overlap can be found between seismic events and plague outbreaks in the first Plague Pandemic, is the same case visible in the second Plague Pandemic? And can we see the influence on other contagious diseases?

In regard to our modern diseases and the population density in Europe, the Middle East and Northern Africa, we should also ask ourselves whether we can use the historical data to find the weak points in our cities in regards to epidemic outbreaks. Links such as hygiene, water and medical support are links that need special attention in times of dual strain. With current predictions of major volcanic activity and subsequent earthquakes at Mount Etna, we need to evaluate our historic data and prepare for the medical crises that could follow such an event. But we can only do that if we have the necessary data.